What we track
Beijing's choice, 10 November. China's Ministry of Commerce, MOFCOM, licenses covered rare-earth exports; that permission is the lever. The April 2025 base controls remain in force. The suspension of the broader October 2025 package ends on 10 November 2026. An extension would arrive as an announcement. Unless the pause is extended, the package is set to resume.
If Beijing extends: the broader squeeze stays deferred. The April licences still apply, and the race stays what it is today: customer approval timelines against the calendar.
If Beijing stays silent: the broader controls resume, and MOFCOM's sign-off covers far more of what leaves the country. Leverage shifts toward licensed Chinese suppliers and scarce alternatives like Lynas; schedule risk moves toward General Motors, and lands hardest on defence buyers once the U.S. defence sourcing rule expands on 1 January 2027.
Beijing could also amend the package or implement it partly; the reading then follows how wide the licence net is actually cast.
What we keep an eye on: MP's first finished-magnet sales to General Motors; Neo's production-part approval for its automotive programmes; USA Rare Earth's first filled orders; any company disclosing that it received a broader export licence. The next company updates begin in August; dates vary by issuer.
And one gauge underneath: monthly U.S. imports of Chinese sintered neodymium-iron-boron magnets, the one route where the squeeze would show up in public numbers. The June figure is released in early August; Cadence reads the DataWeb update by 20 August. Until then, permission and approval decide usable supply.
| Monthly imports (tonnes) | What it means |
|---|---|
| Below 402 | Strain. One month is a first sign; two consecutive months confirm the squeeze is biting: pressure on GM and defence buyers, leverage to licensed and scarce suppliers, sharper after 1 January. |
| 402 to 521 | Steady. A typical 2024 month; no new pressure, no new relief. |
| Above 521 | Relief. One month is a first sign; two consecutive months confirm the route is open: buyer pressure fades, by broader licences or front-running ahead of the January rule. MOFCOM's licensing, customers' approvals, and the defence rule can still bind. |
Series: standalone sintered neodymium-iron-boron magnets under HTS 8505.11.0070, U.S. imports from China; USITC DataWeb. The code identifies chemistry and sintered form only: it excludes bonded magnets and magnets inside finished equipment, and does not show performance grade, buyer, approval status, heavy-rare-earth content, end use, or why a figure moved. June data releases in early August; Cadence updates this card by 20 August, after each monthly release, and within a day of the 10 November decision. Figures describe trade from roughly two months earlier. One route, nothing more.