Source & Method Note

Sourcing: primary filings and official documents, archived at read time; single-source claims are carried at reduced weight until corroborated. Reporting cutoff: 17 July 2026.

The 402-to-521-tonne band describes a typical 2024 month under HTS 8505.11.0070: monthly mean 461 plus or minus one standard deviation; observed extremes 365 to 546. A directional state is confirmed by two consecutive monthly readings beyond the band, or a three-month average beyond it. Figures describe trade from roughly two months before Cadence's reading date.

The code identifies chemistry and sintered form only. Covered countries under DFARS 252.225-7052 are China, Russia, Iran and North Korea. A nonavailability determination can permit a purchase when compliant material is unavailable in the required quality, quantity, form and time at a reasonable price; it does not create supply. The terbium premium is 25.7 per cent, reported as about 26; two consecutive readings below about 5 per cent would weaken the secondary price-signal and bargaining-power interpretation. China's broader October 2025 suspension is governed by MOFCOM/GACC Announcement 70.

The Magnet Factory Is American. The Chemistry Is Not.

The West is building factories for the magnets inside fighter jets, electric vehicles and wind turbines. China still dominates the separation of dysprosium and terbium, the metals added so some of the strongest magnets keep working under heat. Two approaching deadlines will test whether the West has built a supply

Who gains leverage, who bears the pressure when China decides

An extension eases timing. A resumption widens the licensing perimeter and forces choices. Neither, by itself, creates qualified non-Chinese supply. Actor If China extends the pause If the broader controls resume Chinese licensing authorities Leverage retained. China can ease flows without giving up the permission gate. Leverage widens. More

What we track

Beijing's choice, 10 November. China's Ministry of Commerce, MOFCOM, licenses covered rare-earth exports; that permission is the lever. The April 2025 base controls remain in force. The suspension of the broader October 2025 package ends on 10 November 2026. An extension would arrive as an

Board Read - The Magnet Factory

The West is building magnet factories, but China still dominates heavy-rare-earth separation and licenses covered exports from China. Those metals help some of the strongest magnets keep working under heat. The missing link is not magnet-making capacity alone. It is usable supply that can clear export licensing,

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The Magnet Factory Is American. The Chemistry Is Not.

Who gains leverage, who bears the pressure when China decides

What we track

Board Read - The Magnet Factory